By John GaltAugust 20, 2011 -18:35 ET

Waiting on the “official” National Hurricane Center release but the storm has been reclassified by the Naval Research Laboratory so when the NHC does issue their updated statement, I’ll have it here. this storm is of particular concern to Puerto Rico due to the flooding potential and of course the people of Florida where the current model runs have it hitting our state some time at the end of next week.

UPDATED 8/24 08:03 ET -

Now a Cat 3 and I think it could easily reach a high end Cat 4 before tomorrow. See advisory 16A below.

UPDATED 8/24 07:30 ET -

Now the panic seems to be starting on TWC and other news outlets. first the Bushquake and now the threat of a repeat of the Long Island Express hurricane quite possibly this weekend. The media will be more fun to track rather than the actual storm. However if you live anywhere from Eastern North Carolina to Nova Scotia, now is the time to review your hurricane preps and check list.

UPDATED 8/23 05:15 ET -

Thankfully it would appear my neck of the woods will get passed by this storm based on the latest data. unfortunately the entire Eastern seaboard of the U.S. could be dealing with Irene before all is said and done. Hopefully it will recurve out to sea and miss the U.S. but that seems unlikely now. Models have been updated with the latest runs below.

UPDATED 8/22 17:30 ET -

While this “appears” to be a non-Florida bound storm, some models hint at a NC then Northeastern Seaboard solution which is far worse. Imagine a storm hitting the shorelines of NJ, NY, CT, RI, and MA on Labor Day weekend.

Let’s hope it does recurve  out to sea.

The model runs at 0000Z and tomorrow at 1200Z will really set the table for either panic or calm.

UPDATED 8/22 07:28 ET -

The model runs this morning are looking more favorable to my neck of the woods but if the move towards South Carolina bears out, there is the potential for a major hurricane impacting that region causing major problems. all interests in Florida up to the Carolinas need to start reviewing their hurricane plans. Updated model runs are included.

UPDATED 8/21 07:15 ET -

Well, Florida is now well under the “cone of death” so if things look bad here at the end of the week, needless to say my updates will be more focused on the storm rather than other affairs in the world. – John

Quick edit….

This is why I am concerned about this particular storm:

Definition of a “Hebert Box” from Wikipedia (I’ll post the Weather Channel video if it becomes available again soon):

An Hebert Box (pronounced AY-bear, also known as Hebert’s Box) is one of two regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean that are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida, USA. they are named for former National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center forecaster Paul Hebert, who observed in the late 1970s that most strong hurricanes (characterized as those with winds exceeding 110 miles per hour (177 km/h)) which had struck South Florida since 1900 had also passed through one of these two small 335-mile-by-335-mile (517-km-by-517-km) square geographic regions.[1]

That’s why my personal interest is at a major peak and updates will be daily on these pages.

Satellite photos will update automatically from the NHC:

NOAA VISIBLE IMAGE – T.S. IRENE

And the infrared updates automatically also:

NOAA INFRARED – T.S. IRENE

SWFMUD & NCAR  runs (click to enlarge to full size):

HURRICANE IRENE advisories – 8/24 0800 EDT ADVISORY#16A:000WTNT34 KNHC 241157TCPAT4

BULLETINHURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16ANWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011800 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

…IRENE BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE….EYE HEADED FOR THECROOKED AND ACKLINS ISLANDS…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION———————————————-LOCATION…21.9N 73.3WABOUT 55 MI…85 KM SE OF ACKLINS ISLAND BAHAMASABOUT 335 MI…540 KM SE OF NASSAUMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…115 MPH…185 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…957 MB…28.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS——————–CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FORTHE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…* THE SOUTHEASTERN…CENTRAL…AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITORPRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK——————————AT 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…THE EYE OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATEDNEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVINGTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURNTOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECASTTRACK…THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ANDCENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ONTHURSDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATETHAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115MPH…185 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREEHURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOMEADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES…65 KM…FROMTHE CENTER…AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205MILES…335 KM. AN UNOFFICIAL REPORTING STATION AT PINE CAY IN THECAICOS ISLANDS RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 65 MPH….105 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTERAIRCRAFT WAS 957 MB…28.26 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND———————-WIND…HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THESOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOBEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS MORNING…WITH HURRICANECONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT…WITHHURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE…IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OFIRENE…AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELSBY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THECENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS…AND BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEETABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THETURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BEACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL…IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALLACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE INASSOCIATION WITH IRENE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENINGFLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALLACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS…ANDTHE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

NEXT ADVISORY————-NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.

$$FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

=================================================Forecast Discussion#16 8/24 0500 EDT:000WTNT44 KNHC 240846TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011500 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

THE LAST PENETRATION OF THE EYE BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERSWAS JUST AFTER 0500 UTC…AND THEY FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSUREHAD DROPPED TO 966 MB. THEY ALSO MEASURED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDSOF 92 KT OUTBOUND IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. IT IS LIKELY THATHIGHER WINDS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THEHURRICANE. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS..THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OFIRENE HAS BECOME QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERYCOLD CLOUD TOPS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SABARE 100 KT. COMBINING THE ABOVE INFORMATION…THE CURRENTINTENSITY IS SET CONSERVATIVELY AT 95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ANOTHERHURRICANE HUNTER MISSION IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200 UTC TO MEASURE THEINTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE. ALTHOUGH THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCEINDICATES SOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA…THIS SHEARIS NOT EXPECTED TO PREVENT FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND IT SEEMSHIGHLY LIKELY THAT IRENE WILL INTENSIFY TO CATEGORY 3 STATUS LATERTODAY. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH COULD OCCUR IN 1 TO 2 DAYSDUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS. IN FACT…THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVETECHNIQUE SHOWS A CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICALPROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUSAND LIES BETWEEN THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS AND THE LGEM GUIDANCE.

SATELLITE ANIMATION AND CENTER FIXES SHOW THAT THE EYE OF IRENE HASBEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN A WEST AND NORTHWEST HEADING OVER THE PASTSEVERAL HOURS. SMOOTHING THROUGH THESE WOBBLES YIELDS A MOREREPRESENTATIVE MOTION OF ABOUT 295/8. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGETO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PAST FEW ADVISORIES. OVERTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLYTURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS IT MOVES THROUGH APRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AROUND 72 HOURS…ASHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BEGIN TOINDUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH SOMEACCELERATION AFTERWARDS. THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUSHAS…AGAIN…SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST FROM THE PREVIOUSPACKAGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT FROMTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS.

USERS ARE REMINDED THAT SIGNIFICANT ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE WITHFORECASTS AT LONGER LEAD TIMES…SO ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THEEXACT FORECAST POSITIONS AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 21.6N 72.9W 95 KT 110 MPH12H 24/1800Z 22.5N 74.1W 105 KT 120 MPH24H 25/0600Z 24.1N 75.4W 110 KT 125 MPH36H 25/1800Z 25.8N 76.6W 110 KT 125 MPH48H 26/0600Z 27.7N 77.0W 110 KT 125 MPH72H 27/0600Z 32.0N 76.8W 105 KT 120 MPH96H 28/0600Z 36.5N 75.0W 90 KT 105 MPH120H 29/0600Z 42.0N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH…INLAND

$$FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• NEW: As of 11 a.m. ET, Irene was moving over crooked and Acklins islands, the NHC says
• NEW: parts of northern Haiti are flooded, the U.N. says
• NEW: "We must all prepare for the worst," the North Carolina governor says
• NEW: some Outer Banks residents were planning "hurricane parties," a CNN iReporter say

Read more about Hurricane Irene from CNN affiliate WSAV.

Miami (CNN) — Hurricane Irene intensified into a Category 3 storm Wednesday, threatening much of the United States’ East Coast in the coming days.

The storm had maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, and is expected to strengthen further "in the next day or so," the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday morning.

"this is a huge storm," said CNN Meteorologist Jacqui Jeras. "the cloud field is more than 800 miles across. the tropical storm force winds extend out 200 miles from the center."

The storm could threaten large sections of the Eastern Seaboard, from the Carolinas northward through the northeast.

The strengthening, which officially made Irene a major hurricane, came as the storm continued to pound the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

At 11 a.m. ET, Irene was turning northwestward, with its eye moving over crooked and Acklins islands, the National Hurricane Center said.

"On the forecast track, the core of Irene will move across the southeastern and central Bahamas through tonight and over the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday," the Hurricane Center said.

Gallery: Hurricane Irene intensifies Irene reaches Category 3 near Bahamas Florida prepares for Irene Irene strikes Turks and Caicos

In Nassau, many people had evacuated by Wednesday morning. Shopkeepers were boarding up their storefronts, and residents prepared to hunker down for the storm’s arrival.

"We’ve been through quite a few hurricane so were pretty much prepared," said Brian Nottage, who owns a shop and ice cream parlor in downtown Nassau.

Irene’s path will see it rake a large portion of the island chain as it heads northwest toward the United States.

The storm unleashed heavy rains across northern Haiti, causing flooding, the United Nations said Wednesday. there were no reports of major losses or damage, U.N. officials said.

Most of the latest forecasts suggest the storm will avoid landfall in North Carolina. "however, this is a very dangerous storm and much of the East Coast, including North Carolina, should be prepared for a landfall," said Jeras.

Some computer models suggest new York or new Jersey could be hit.

"Everywhere from North Carolina to Massachusetts remains in the cone of uncertainty," said Jeras. "worst case scenario, we could be looking at two landfalls, or we could be lucky and get a brush instead of a direct hit… Even if Irene doesn’t make landfall in the United States, it may very well bring flooding rains, damaging winds and power outages to the Northeast. planning is critical and everyone needs to be ready with a disaster plan and a safety kit."

Hyde County, in North Carolina’s Outer Banks, declared a state of emergency for Ocracoke island and the county’s mainland beginning at 5 a.m. Wednesday — along with a mandatory evacuation for all visitors and a voluntary evacuation for residents. the mandatory evacuation will extend to residents beginning 5 a.m. Thursday, Hyde County Emergency Services said.

Ocracoke is reachable only by boat or private plane.

While forecasts showed the storm "moving further from the coast and toward the sea," North Carolina Gov. Beverly Perdue said Wednesday, "we must all prepare for the worst."

In Kill Devil Hills in the Outer Banks, locals who insist on staying trough the storm were planning "hurricane parties" as they stocked up on water, canned food, and flashlight batteries, said CNN iReporter Penelope Penn, who was in the area Tuesday. "the water was so calm and the sky so clear at the outer banks last night. It truly is calmest before a storm," she added. On Wednesday, Penn was in nearby Virginia Beach.

Inland, Lila Little of Chapel Hill, North Carolina, told CNN, "We are a bit nervous, since hurricanes are so unpredictable, but we have been here many times before." Little has lived in the area for more than 20 years.

"the economic effect will be the worst I think — Labor Day weekend will be a bust for the beaches here, and they count on that last bit of revenue before the season ends," she said.

The last major hurricane to strike the United States was Wilma in 2005, which was a Category 3 at landfall, said Jeras. Hurricane Katrina, earlier the same year, was also a Category 3 at landfall.

The most recent hurricane to make landfall in the United States was Ike in 2008, which hit near Galveston as a Category 2.

Hurricane Floyd in 1999 was the most recent major hurricane to hit North Carolina’s Outer Banks. It was a Category 2 at landfall.

Hurricane Gloria in 1985 was the most recent hurricane to hit new York. it was a Category 3 at landfall, the National Hurricane Center said. in 1991, Hurricane Bob hit Massachusetts, a Category 2 at landfall.

If a Category 3 hurricane makes landfall, "devastating damage will occur," according to the National Hurricane Center’s Saffir-Simpson scale. "there is a high risk of injury or death to people, livestock, and pets due to flying and falling debris." Older mobile homes will be destroyed, and newer ones could be as well. "Well-built frame homes can experience major damage involving the removal of roof decking and gable ends," the Hurricane Center explained.

"Numerous windows will be blown out of high-rise buildings resulting in falling glass, which will pose a threat for days to weeks after the storm. most commercial signage, fences, and canopies will be destroyed. many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to a few weeks after the storm passes."

Hurricane Ivan in 2004 "brought Category 3 winds and impacts to coastal portions of Gulf Shores, Alabama," the Hurricane Center said.

Bill Read, director of the Hurricane Center, said Irene could cause problems with flooding in northeastern states that have already experienced high levels of rainfall this summer.

He said the Atlantic Ocean up to Cape Hatteras in North Carolina is warm enough to sustain a major hurricane.

"all East Coast residents should pay close attention to this storm and take the time now to prepare," Craig Fugate, the Federal Emergency Management Agency administrator, said Tuesday.

"People think hurricanes are a Southern thing but people in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast need to take Irene seriously," Fugate said. "We have a lot of time for people to get ready but we don’t have forever."

The Hurricane Center’s five-day forecast map shows the storm approaching North Carolina on Saturday and hugging the coast throughout the weekend.

Widespread damage is possible from the coastal Carolinas all the way up to the Canadian Maritimes, including the major cities of the Northeast, CNN Meteorologist Dave Hennen said.

Irene is expected to pass well east of Florida so only minimal effects are expected Thursday and Friday as the storm moves northward toward the Carolinas.

"We will be ready if Hurricane Irene reaches North Carolina," Gov. Beverly Perdue said Tuesday. "Our teams are already lining up supplies, trucks and resources to reach anywhere the storm might touch."

In South Carolina, emergency officials in Beaufort County, which includes Hilton Head Island, worked to make certain that construction sites on major highways could be cleared quickly in case evacuations of coastal areas became necessary.

"We’re contacting (construction crews) every day now to make sure if we should have to do something, that they could remove their barrels and construction equipment, etc. to clear the road so we don’t have impediment in the roadways," county Emergency Management Director Todd Ferguson told CNN affiliate WSAV TV Tuesday. "We … will continue to do that until this threat is passed."

In Puerto Rico, officials reported the death of a 62-year-old woman Tuesday as drenching rains from Irene soaked the U.S. commonwealth. she was trying to cross a bridge in a car over a flooded creek when the vehicle was inundated and she drowned, according to Lourdes Vazquez, a spokeswoman for the city of Carolina.

The storm left widespread damage on the island, leaving about 600,000 electric customers without power at its peak.

President Barack Obama has signed an emergency declaration for Puerto Rico, providing for federal disaster assistance.

CNN’s Ed Payne, Josh Levs, and Nelson Quinones contributed to this report.

2011 Hurricane Preparedness Workshop speakers in Key West

Most of the participants at yesterday’s Hurricane Preparedness Workshop for the Florida Keys Tourism Industry posed for a group picture at the Harvey Government Center in Key West.  From left, front row, are Bill Becker, U.S. 1 Radio; Max Mayfield, WPLG-TV; Cammy Clark, the Miami Herald; and Bryan Norcross, the Weather Channel.  in the back row are Bill Read, National Hurricane Center Director; Jon Rizzo, Key West National Weather Service; Jodi Weinhoffer, Lodging Association of the Florida Keys and Key West; and Rich Phillips, CNN.   Photo by Andy Newman/Florida Keys News Bureau.

Three people drowned in the Dominican Republic after Tropical Storm Emily flooded rural areas, the Listín Diario newspaper reported Friday.

Two people drowned in Higüey, Altagracia province, when they were swept by the Duey River’s current, the newspaper said.

Another man drowned in Santo Domingo East while swimming in a drainage ditch, Dominican Today website reported.

The Emergency Management Center’s latest bulletin says 21 provinces remain on red alert, and 11 more are on yellow alert.

Number of people displaced: 6,970

Number of people in government shelters: 985

Number of communities cut off because of road or bridge collapses: 56

The 11 A.M. bulletin reports incidents throughout the nation, including rising rivers, evacuated families and collapsed bridges.

If the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily do form again, it won’t happen before Saturday and won’t pose any threat to Florida or the Atlantic coast, forecasters said Friday.

The broad mass of low pressure will start to enter a more favorable area for development in the next few days but by then it would likely be over or even past the northern Bahamas, said Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the National Hurricane Center. From there, computer models suggest the system would continue moving out into the open Atlantic Ocean.

“In that position, all the weather would stay well east of Florida and would have no impact,” he said. “Whatever is out there would be moving and would curve away.”

if the system does regenerate, it would retain the name Emily.

the National Weather Service reduced rain chances for South Florida this weekend from 50 to 40 percent.

The United Nations’ Office of Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in Haiti said no injuries, deaths or damages were reported Thursday night due to heavy rains, except to banana and coconut trees. more information is expected throughout the day.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami says the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily have a pretty good chance of reforming and becoming a tropical cyclone.

Emily soaked Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti before dissipating Thursday night. But meteorologists say the remnants are producing enough clouds and thunderstorms from eastern Cuba toward the Bahamas to be cause for concern.

“this system remains disorganized but upper-level winds are expected to become a little more favorable for development on Saturday,” the weather service said in a morning bulletin. “this system has a high chance… 60 percent .. of regenerating into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves toward the Northwest and Northward at 15 MPH.”

More than 7,000 people are still evacuated in the Dominican Republic, after a weakened tropical storm Emily dumped rain on the island of Hispaniola.

The Emergency Operations Center in Santo Domingo said that by Thursday night, 47 communities were cut off by collapsed bridges or landslides.

“There is a report of damages, which is quite extensive,” center director Juan Manuel Méndez said at a late Thursday press conference. “we ask people not to let their guards down, because precipitation will continue, and the grounds are saturated, especially in the south – southwest part of the country. the rain is what does most damage, not the wind.”

Of the 47 communities, 38 are in the province of Azua.

Local television reports showed extensive flooding in rural communities, where plantain farms were flooded and many people live precariously near rivers or dams.

In El Peñon, residents complained that weak infrastructure leaves them under water time and time again.

“Here the custom is to take the victims and evacuate them out of their homes and never remember them again,” Rosa Pérez told SIN News. “They let them loose like dogs.”

Another emergency center bulletin is expected at 11 A.M.

Tropical Storm Don last week was the first named storm to enter into the Gulf of Mexico this 2011 Storm Season – and it definitely won’t be the last. You may start to hear several phrases such as “Tropical Storm Warning” or “Hurricane Watch.”  If you are not already familiar with these terms, here is your introduction to Storm Season Terminology courtesy of the National Hurricane Center!

Advisory:  Official information issued by tropical cyclone warning centers describing all tropical cyclone watches and warnings in effect along with details concerning tropical cyclone locations, intensity and movement, and precautions that should be taken. Advisories are also issued to describe : (a) tropical cyclones prior to issuance of watches and warnings and (b) subtropical cyclones.

Gale Warning: A warning of 1-minute sustained surface winds in the range 34 kt (39 mph or 63 km/hr) to 47 kt (54 mph or 87 km/hr) inclusive, either predicted or occurring and not directly associated with tropical cyclones.

High Wind Warning: A high wind warning is defined as 1-minute average surface winds of 35 kt (40 mph or 64 km/hr) or greater lasting for 1 hour or longer, or winds gusting to 50 kt (58 mph or 93 km/hr) or greater regardless of duration that are either expected or observed over land.

Hurricane: A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 64 kt (74 mph or 119 km/hr) or more. 

Hurricane Season: The portion of the year having a relatively high incidence of hurricanes. The hurricane season in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico runs from June 1 to November 30. The hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific basin runs from may 15 to November 30. The hurricane season in the Central Pacific basin runs from June 1 to November 30.

Hurricane Warning: An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are expected somewhere within the specified area. because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.

Hurricane Watch: An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible within the specified area. because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.

Indirect Hit: Generally refers to locations that do not experience a direct hit from a tropical cyclone, but do experience hurricane force winds (either sustained or gusts) or tides of at least 4 feet above normal.

Storm Surge: An abnormal rise in sea level accompanying a hurricane or other intense storm, and whose height is the difference between the observed level of the sea surface and the level that would have occurred in the absence of the cyclone. Storm surge is usually estimated by subtracting the normal or astronomic high tide from the observed storm tide.

Storm Warning: A warning of 1-minute sustained surface winds of 48 kt (55 mph or 88 km/hr) or greater, either predicted or occurring.

Tropical Depression: A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.

Tropical Disturbance: A discrete tropical weather system of apparently organized convection — generally 100 to 300 nmi in diameter — originating in the tropics or subtropics, having a nonfrontal migratory character, and maintaining its identity for 24 hours or more. it may or may not be associated with a detectable perturbation of the wind field.

Tropical Storm: A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) ranges from 34 kt (39 mph or 63 km/hr) to 63 kt (73 mph or 118 km/hr).

Tropical Storm Warning: An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected somewhere within the specified area within 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Watch: An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Tropical Wave: A trough or cyclonic curvature maximum in the trade-wind easterlies. The wave may reach maximum amplitude in the lower middle troposphere.

If you have questions about your coverage for the 2011 storm season, please give us a call at 281-998-2500! we want to make sure you have the proper insurance coverage!

Insure with us today, Be sure of tomorrow!

By: Brandon KelloggDeltona, FL (July 13, 2011) –

The West Volusia Regional Chamber Government Affairs Committee and the City of Deltona are sponsoring the Hurricane Preparedness Expo to be held on Tuesday, July 26th, from 5pm – 8pm at Deltona City Hall, 2345 Providence rd., Deltona.

Emergency Management officials from the City of Deltona, Volusia County, State of Florida and Federal Government will be on site to discuss preparedness and safety issues, and after the fact needs.

Additionally, local business leaders from various industries will discuss insurance, roofing, electrical, and plumbing information and more!

The Atlantic hurricane season officially began June 1 and ends November 30. the National Hurricane Center predicts that it will be an above average summer with 12 to 18 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes and 3 to 6 major hurricanes, which are Category 3 and above.

The Hurricane Preparedness Expo is FREE and open to the public. For details call:  386-490-4606.

(CNN) — Tropical Storm Don set its sights on south Texas on Friday as it churned across the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center said.The storm, which would bring much-need rainfall to the parched state, is forecast to make landfall along the Texas coast late Friday night or early Saturday.Don had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph (85 kph) with higher gusts at 5 a.m. ET, quickly spinning toward the west-northwest at 14 mph (22 kph).The storm was about 290 miles (470 km) southeast of Corpus Christi and about 245 miles (395 km) east of Brownsville.”Some strengthening is possible until landfall, with weakening likely by Saturday morning,” the hurricane center said.Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (170 km), but mainly to the north and east of the storm’s center.It’s not often that news of a tropical storm is welcomed, but Don’s expected heavy rainfall may prove to be a silver lining for Texas.”Some parts of Texas are more than 15 inches below average (for rainfall). this storm will likely not be a drought-buster, but could at least put a dent in and around where the storm makes landfall,” CNN meteorologist Dave Hennen said Thursday. if Don “does not intensify into a hurricane, this is likely a good thing.”Any rain would be a welcome relief for many Texas farmers, who are suffering from the third worst drought in recorded history, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.Most farmers have adopted an “I’ll believe it when I see it” attitude when it comes to predicted rain, Texas Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples said.He also noted that even with the drought, this rain might not be a good thing for cotton farmers in coastal regions.”We needed the rain during the growing season and we’re getting it during harvesting — it’s the complete reverse here,” he said.”Along the Gulf Coast they’re harvesting cotton and it could add insult to injury because the rain lowers the quality and makes harvesting difficult,” he said. “All of this results in higher prices to the consumer because our supplies will be more limited.”Despite the drawbacks for the cotton industry, Staples said there’s no denying the state desperately needs the rain.”Unfortunately, no part of Texas has escaped the damage of this drought,” he said. “We welcome Tropical Storm Don as much as we’re looking forward to Friday night football.”Don could bring benefits beyond the rain itself.”It will also cool the temps down for a day or two as far north as lower Oklahoma,” HLN meteorologist Bob Van Dillen said. “We’ll see how strong he gets and what the weather will be like for the western Gulf over the next few days.”A tropical storm watch was in effect for the Texas coast, from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward to Matagorda. A watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within the area, generally within 48 hours.A storm surge is expected to raise water levels by a foot or two in coastal areas where Don makes landfall, the hurricane center said. The surge is forecast to be accompanied by large and damaging waves.The storm could also bring up to seven inches of rain in some areas, the center said.Corpus Christi, Texas, resident Aubrey Carter, 87, has been diligently waking up at 3 a.m. to water her grass during the designated water restrictions.”We are looking forward to Don coming because the drought has been so severe and everybody needs rain,” she told CNN.MaryJane Crull, marketing director at the South Texas Botanical Gardens in Corpus Christi, told CNN, “We’re excited about it if Don remains a low-key tropical storm. … We can handle six to eight inches of rain without a problem.”Wetlands on the property need the rain, Crull said.”This will put water back in them and this will make birds and wildlife on our property happy and make visitors happy as well.”Companies with personnel along the Texas coast were quickly preparing.ExxonMobil began evacuating nonessential personnel from offshore facilities in the path of the storm Thursday, spokesman Patrick McGinn said. gross production of approximately 8,000 barrels per day of liquids and 50 million cubic feet per day of natural gas was shut down.The U.S. Coast Guard issued a warning Thursday afternoon, urging people to plan and prepare ahead of the storm. The statement cautions residents to stay clear of beaches, to take action early — including securing boating equipment and hazardous materials — and to evacuate as necessary.CNN’s Chelsea Bailey and Molly Green contributed to this report.Copyright CNN 2011

If you or your senior loved one live in a coastal area, have you taken the advisable steps to prepare in advance for a Hurricane? if an evacuation order were given, have you planned how and where your elderly parent would evacuate? The U.S. Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) provides “Key Facts About Hurricane Readiness,” including helpful tips and checklists here.

The National Weather Service’s National Hurricane Center also offers helpful tips for Hurricane Preparedness, along with current weather forecasts here.

FEMA’s Ready America site advises older Americans on Emergency plans and preparedness»

See also preparedness information from the www.ready.gov site:

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July 30 (Bloomberg) — Tropical Storm Don has been downgraded to a tropical depression as it moved across the Texas coastline near Baffin Bay last night, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

the depression was about 40 miles south of Corpus Christi, Texas, with maximum winds of 35 miles (56 kilometers) per hour, according to a hurricane center advisory issued just before 10 p.m. local time. All storm warnings for the coast have been canceled.

“Don is forecast to dissipate in a day or so as it moves farther inland,” the advisory said. “Data from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane indicate that the winds are also rapidly decreasing.”

At its height, Don forced the shutdown of more than 11.9 percent of oil production and 6.2 percent of gas output from the Gulf of Mexico, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement said yesterday.

Storms are watched closely because they are a threat to oil and natural gas interests in the Gulf, home to 31 percent of U.S. oil output and 7 percent of natural gas production. Coastal refineries account for 7.61 million barrels a day, or 42 percent of U.S. capacity.

Personnel were evacuated from 56 oil and gas platforms and four rigs in the Gulf, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management said.

Forecasters also are tracking two other areas of disturbed weather that have the potential to become storms. one is about 1,100 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles that has a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next two days, according to the hurricane center.

the second is off the coast of Nicaragua and bringing rain across Central America, the center said. It has a near-zero percent chance of becoming a storm in the next two days because it’s so close to land.

–With assistance from Sherry Su in London, Barbara Powell in Dallas, Christine Buurma, Aaron Clark and Jim Polson in New York, Joe Carroll in Chicago, Edward Klump and Bradley Olson in Houston, Lynn Doan in San Francisco and Christian Schmollinger in Singapore. Editors: Sylvia Wier, Jeran Wittenstein

Tropical Storm Nicole dropped heavyrains that cut roads, washed away bridges and homes and may havekilled at least one child as it moved through Jamaica, Cuba andthe Cayman Islands before dissipating over the Straits ofFlorida today.

One child was reported swept away when a house succumbed toflood waters, according to Jamaica’s Office of DisasterPreparedness and Emergency Management’s website. Cuba’smeteorological institute reported “intense and heavy rains”were falling in its central provinces and warned of flooding inlow-lying areas from east of Havana to Guantanamo.

Nicole has since become untrackable, according to aNational Hurricane Center advisory at 5 p.m. East Coast time.

The disappearance of Nicole doesn’t mean that New York andthe rest of the U.S. East Coast will be spared heavy rainsstarting overnight, said Carl Erickson, senior meteorologist atcommercial forecaster AccuWeather inc. in State College,Pennsylvania.

“The weather forecast hasn’t changed much, you just can’tattach a name to it,” Erickson said. “Regardless whetherNicole existed or not, the situation was going to remain thesame, a tremendous amount of tropical moisture is coming up theEast Coast.”

Flood watches are now posted from South Carolina to NewHampshire in advance of the storm, according to the NationalWeather Service.

As much as 6 inches (15 centimeters) of rain may fall inNew York’s five boroughs said Joe Pollina, a weather servicemeteorologist in Upton, New York. Some areas may receive more.

Pollina said the heaviest rain will arrive in two waves,the first will be tomorrow from 2 a.m. to 6 a.m., followed by asecond late tomorrow night.

“Torrential rains could be falling from the Carolinas allthe way up to New York City,” said Meredith Croke, ameteorologist for AirDat LLC in North Carolina, which installsweather-gathering sensors on commercial aircraft.

Washington and Baltimore were forecast to receive as muchas 4 inches of rain, as were New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvaniaincluding Philadelphia, and Delaware, according to the weatherservice. Some areas in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware mayget 7 inches, the weather service said.

In addition, the weather service has issued a high-windwatch for eastern Long Island, parts of Connecticut, RhodeIsland and Massachusetts, as well as eastern Maine startingtomorrow. Wind gusts as intense as 60 miles (96 kilometers) perhour may occur through the day after tomorrow.

The wet weather should be gone by this weekend, Ericksonsaid.

Before it dissipated, Nicole was the 14th storm with windsof at least 39 miles per hour of the 2010 Atlantic hurricaneseason, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. the average seasonproduces 11 storms, according to the hurricane center.

The center is also tracking two tropical waves over thecentral Atlantic that it says have a 10 percent chance each ofbecoming tropical cyclones within two days. A tropical cycloneis a rotating storm ranging from a depression to a hurricane.

To contact the reporter on this story:Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story:Dan Stets at dstets@bloomberg.net