By John GaltAugust 20, 2011 -18:35 ET
Waiting on the “official” National Hurricane Center release but the storm has been reclassified by the Naval Research Laboratory so when the NHC does issue their updated statement, I’ll have it here. this storm is of particular concern to Puerto Rico due to the flooding potential and of course the people of Florida where the current model runs have it hitting our state some time at the end of next week.
UPDATED 8/24 08:03 ET -
Now a Cat 3 and I think it could easily reach a high end Cat 4 before tomorrow. See advisory 16A below.
UPDATED 8/24 07:30 ET -
Now the panic seems to be starting on TWC and other news outlets. first the Bushquake and now the threat of a repeat of the Long Island Express hurricane quite possibly this weekend. The media will be more fun to track rather than the actual storm. However if you live anywhere from Eastern North Carolina to Nova Scotia, now is the time to review your hurricane preps and check list.
UPDATED 8/23 05:15 ET -
Thankfully it would appear my neck of the woods will get passed by this storm based on the latest data. unfortunately the entire Eastern seaboard of the U.S. could be dealing with Irene before all is said and done. Hopefully it will recurve out to sea and miss the U.S. but that seems unlikely now. Models have been updated with the latest runs below.
UPDATED 8/22 17:30 ET -
While this “appears” to be a non-Florida bound storm, some models hint at a NC then Northeastern Seaboard solution which is far worse. Imagine a storm hitting the shorelines of NJ, NY, CT, RI, and MA on Labor Day weekend.
Let’s hope it does recurve out to sea.
The model runs at 0000Z and tomorrow at 1200Z will really set the table for either panic or calm.
UPDATED 8/22 07:28 ET -
The model runs this morning are looking more favorable to my neck of the woods but if the move towards South Carolina bears out, there is the potential for a major hurricane impacting that region causing major problems. all interests in Florida up to the Carolinas need to start reviewing their hurricane plans. Updated model runs are included.
UPDATED 8/21 07:15 ET -
Well, Florida is now well under the “cone of death” so if things look bad here at the end of the week, needless to say my updates will be more focused on the storm rather than other affairs in the world. – John
Quick edit….
This is why I am concerned about this particular storm:
Definition of a “Hebert Box” from Wikipedia (I’ll post the Weather Channel video if it becomes available again soon):
An Hebert Box (pronounced AY-bear, also known as Hebert’s Box) is one of two regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean that are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida, USA. they are named for former National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center forecaster Paul Hebert, who observed in the late 1970s that most strong hurricanes (characterized as those with winds exceeding 110 miles per hour (177 km/h)) which had struck South Florida since 1900 had also passed through one of these two small 335-mile-by-335-mile (517-km-by-517-km) square geographic regions.[1]
That’s why my personal interest is at a major peak and updates will be daily on these pages.
Satellite photos will update automatically from the NHC:
NOAA VISIBLE IMAGE – T.S. IRENE
And the infrared updates automatically also:
NOAA INFRARED – T.S. IRENE
SWFMUD & NCAR runs (click to enlarge to full size):
HURRICANE IRENE advisories – 8/24 0800 EDT ADVISORY#16A:000WTNT34 KNHC 241157TCPAT4
BULLETINHURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16ANWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011800 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011
…IRENE BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE….EYE HEADED FOR THECROOKED AND ACKLINS ISLANDS…
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION———————————————-LOCATION…21.9N 73.3WABOUT 55 MI…85 KM SE OF ACKLINS ISLAND BAHAMASABOUT 335 MI…540 KM SE OF NASSAUMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…115 MPH…185 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…957 MB…28.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS——————–CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FORTHE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…* THE SOUTHEASTERN…CENTRAL…AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITORPRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK——————————AT 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…THE EYE OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATEDNEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVINGTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURNTOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECASTTRACK…THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ANDCENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ONTHURSDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATETHAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115MPH…185 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREEHURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOMEADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY OR SO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES…65 KM…FROMTHE CENTER…AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205MILES…335 KM. AN UNOFFICIAL REPORTING STATION AT PINE CAY IN THECAICOS ISLANDS RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 65 MPH….105 KM/H.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTERAIRCRAFT WAS 957 MB…28.26 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND———————-WIND…HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THESOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOBEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS MORNING…WITH HURRICANECONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT…WITHHURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
STORM SURGE…IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OFIRENE…AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELSBY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THECENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS…AND BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEETABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THETURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BEACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
RAINFALL…IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALLACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE INASSOCIATION WITH IRENE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENINGFLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALLACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS…ANDTHE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY————-NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.
$$FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
=================================================Forecast Discussion#16 8/24 0500 EDT:000WTNT44 KNHC 240846TCDAT4
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011500 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011
THE LAST PENETRATION OF THE EYE BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERSWAS JUST AFTER 0500 UTC…AND THEY FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSUREHAD DROPPED TO 966 MB. THEY ALSO MEASURED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDSOF 92 KT OUTBOUND IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. IT IS LIKELY THATHIGHER WINDS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THEHURRICANE. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS..THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OFIRENE HAS BECOME QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERYCOLD CLOUD TOPS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SABARE 100 KT. COMBINING THE ABOVE INFORMATION…THE CURRENTINTENSITY IS SET CONSERVATIVELY AT 95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ANOTHERHURRICANE HUNTER MISSION IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200 UTC TO MEASURE THEINTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE. ALTHOUGH THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCEINDICATES SOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA…THIS SHEARIS NOT EXPECTED TO PREVENT FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND IT SEEMSHIGHLY LIKELY THAT IRENE WILL INTENSIFY TO CATEGORY 3 STATUS LATERTODAY. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH COULD OCCUR IN 1 TO 2 DAYSDUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS. IN FACT…THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVETECHNIQUE SHOWS A CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICALPROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUSAND LIES BETWEEN THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS AND THE LGEM GUIDANCE.
SATELLITE ANIMATION AND CENTER FIXES SHOW THAT THE EYE OF IRENE HASBEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN A WEST AND NORTHWEST HEADING OVER THE PASTSEVERAL HOURS. SMOOTHING THROUGH THESE WOBBLES YIELDS A MOREREPRESENTATIVE MOTION OF ABOUT 295/8. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGETO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PAST FEW ADVISORIES. OVERTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLYTURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS IT MOVES THROUGH APRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AROUND 72 HOURS…ASHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BEGIN TOINDUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH SOMEACCELERATION AFTERWARDS. THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUSHAS…AGAIN…SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST FROM THE PREVIOUSPACKAGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT FROMTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS.
USERS ARE REMINDED THAT SIGNIFICANT ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE WITHFORECASTS AT LONGER LEAD TIMES…SO ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THEEXACT FORECAST POSITIONS AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0900Z 21.6N 72.9W 95 KT 110 MPH12H 24/1800Z 22.5N 74.1W 105 KT 120 MPH24H 25/0600Z 24.1N 75.4W 110 KT 125 MPH36H 25/1800Z 25.8N 76.6W 110 KT 125 MPH48H 26/0600Z 27.7N 77.0W 110 KT 125 MPH72H 27/0600Z 32.0N 76.8W 105 KT 120 MPH96H 28/0600Z 36.5N 75.0W 90 KT 105 MPH120H 29/0600Z 42.0N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH…INLAND
$$FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
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