By John GaltAugust 20, 2011 -18:35 ET

Waiting on the “official” National Hurricane Center release but the storm has been reclassified by the Naval Research Laboratory so when the NHC does issue their updated statement, I’ll have it here. this storm is of particular concern to Puerto Rico due to the flooding potential and of course the people of Florida where the current model runs have it hitting our state some time at the end of next week.

UPDATED 8/24 08:03 ET -

Now a Cat 3 and I think it could easily reach a high end Cat 4 before tomorrow. See advisory 16A below.

UPDATED 8/24 07:30 ET -

Now the panic seems to be starting on TWC and other news outlets. first the Bushquake and now the threat of a repeat of the Long Island Express hurricane quite possibly this weekend. The media will be more fun to track rather than the actual storm. However if you live anywhere from Eastern North Carolina to Nova Scotia, now is the time to review your hurricane preps and check list.

UPDATED 8/23 05:15 ET -

Thankfully it would appear my neck of the woods will get passed by this storm based on the latest data. unfortunately the entire Eastern seaboard of the U.S. could be dealing with Irene before all is said and done. Hopefully it will recurve out to sea and miss the U.S. but that seems unlikely now. Models have been updated with the latest runs below.

UPDATED 8/22 17:30 ET -

While this “appears” to be a non-Florida bound storm, some models hint at a NC then Northeastern Seaboard solution which is far worse. Imagine a storm hitting the shorelines of NJ, NY, CT, RI, and MA on Labor Day weekend.

Let’s hope it does recurve  out to sea.

The model runs at 0000Z and tomorrow at 1200Z will really set the table for either panic or calm.

UPDATED 8/22 07:28 ET -

The model runs this morning are looking more favorable to my neck of the woods but if the move towards South Carolina bears out, there is the potential for a major hurricane impacting that region causing major problems. all interests in Florida up to the Carolinas need to start reviewing their hurricane plans. Updated model runs are included.

UPDATED 8/21 07:15 ET -

Well, Florida is now well under the “cone of death” so if things look bad here at the end of the week, needless to say my updates will be more focused on the storm rather than other affairs in the world. – John

Quick edit….

This is why I am concerned about this particular storm:

Definition of a “Hebert Box” from Wikipedia (I’ll post the Weather Channel video if it becomes available again soon):

An Hebert Box (pronounced AY-bear, also known as Hebert’s Box) is one of two regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean that are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida, USA. they are named for former National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center forecaster Paul Hebert, who observed in the late 1970s that most strong hurricanes (characterized as those with winds exceeding 110 miles per hour (177 km/h)) which had struck South Florida since 1900 had also passed through one of these two small 335-mile-by-335-mile (517-km-by-517-km) square geographic regions.[1]

That’s why my personal interest is at a major peak and updates will be daily on these pages.

Satellite photos will update automatically from the NHC:

NOAA VISIBLE IMAGE – T.S. IRENE

And the infrared updates automatically also:

NOAA INFRARED – T.S. IRENE

SWFMUD & NCAR  runs (click to enlarge to full size):

HURRICANE IRENE advisories – 8/24 0800 EDT ADVISORY#16A:000WTNT34 KNHC 241157TCPAT4

BULLETINHURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16ANWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011800 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

…IRENE BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE….EYE HEADED FOR THECROOKED AND ACKLINS ISLANDS…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION———————————————-LOCATION…21.9N 73.3WABOUT 55 MI…85 KM SE OF ACKLINS ISLAND BAHAMASABOUT 335 MI…540 KM SE OF NASSAUMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…115 MPH…185 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…957 MB…28.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS——————–CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FORTHE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…* THE SOUTHEASTERN…CENTRAL…AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITORPRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK——————————AT 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…THE EYE OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATEDNEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVINGTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURNTOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECASTTRACK…THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ANDCENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ONTHURSDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATETHAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115MPH…185 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREEHURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOMEADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES…65 KM…FROMTHE CENTER…AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205MILES…335 KM. AN UNOFFICIAL REPORTING STATION AT PINE CAY IN THECAICOS ISLANDS RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 65 MPH….105 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTERAIRCRAFT WAS 957 MB…28.26 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND———————-WIND…HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THESOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOBEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS MORNING…WITH HURRICANECONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT…WITHHURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE…IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OFIRENE…AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELSBY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THECENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS…AND BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEETABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THETURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BEACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL…IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALLACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE INASSOCIATION WITH IRENE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENINGFLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALLACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS…ANDTHE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

NEXT ADVISORY————-NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.

$$FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

=================================================Forecast Discussion#16 8/24 0500 EDT:000WTNT44 KNHC 240846TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011500 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

THE LAST PENETRATION OF THE EYE BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERSWAS JUST AFTER 0500 UTC…AND THEY FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSUREHAD DROPPED TO 966 MB. THEY ALSO MEASURED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDSOF 92 KT OUTBOUND IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. IT IS LIKELY THATHIGHER WINDS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THEHURRICANE. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS..THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OFIRENE HAS BECOME QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERYCOLD CLOUD TOPS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SABARE 100 KT. COMBINING THE ABOVE INFORMATION…THE CURRENTINTENSITY IS SET CONSERVATIVELY AT 95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ANOTHERHURRICANE HUNTER MISSION IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200 UTC TO MEASURE THEINTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE. ALTHOUGH THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCEINDICATES SOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA…THIS SHEARIS NOT EXPECTED TO PREVENT FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND IT SEEMSHIGHLY LIKELY THAT IRENE WILL INTENSIFY TO CATEGORY 3 STATUS LATERTODAY. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH COULD OCCUR IN 1 TO 2 DAYSDUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS. IN FACT…THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVETECHNIQUE SHOWS A CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICALPROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUSAND LIES BETWEEN THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS AND THE LGEM GUIDANCE.

SATELLITE ANIMATION AND CENTER FIXES SHOW THAT THE EYE OF IRENE HASBEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN A WEST AND NORTHWEST HEADING OVER THE PASTSEVERAL HOURS. SMOOTHING THROUGH THESE WOBBLES YIELDS A MOREREPRESENTATIVE MOTION OF ABOUT 295/8. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGETO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PAST FEW ADVISORIES. OVERTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLYTURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS IT MOVES THROUGH APRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AROUND 72 HOURS…ASHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BEGIN TOINDUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH SOMEACCELERATION AFTERWARDS. THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUSHAS…AGAIN…SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST FROM THE PREVIOUSPACKAGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT FROMTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS.

USERS ARE REMINDED THAT SIGNIFICANT ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE WITHFORECASTS AT LONGER LEAD TIMES…SO ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THEEXACT FORECAST POSITIONS AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 21.6N 72.9W 95 KT 110 MPH12H 24/1800Z 22.5N 74.1W 105 KT 120 MPH24H 25/0600Z 24.1N 75.4W 110 KT 125 MPH36H 25/1800Z 25.8N 76.6W 110 KT 125 MPH48H 26/0600Z 27.7N 77.0W 110 KT 125 MPH72H 27/0600Z 32.0N 76.8W 105 KT 120 MPH96H 28/0600Z 36.5N 75.0W 90 KT 105 MPH120H 29/0600Z 42.0N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH…INLAND

$$FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

Published: August 24, 2011 11:12 AM by The Associated Press  

BEDFORD HILLS, NY — – (Marketwire) — 08/24/11 — The high winds associated with hurricanes can cause significant property damage in the form of falling trees, tree limbs and flying landscape debris. The key to minimizing your risk against property damage is storm preparedness.

There is no such thing as a hurricane-resistant landscape but, with proper care and timely maintenance overseen by a certified arborist, trees can be more resistant to storm damage. The team of certified arborists at SavATree have compiled a few tips to aid in storm damage prevention.

Pruning is Vital to Prevention a strong, deep-rooted tree may not fall during a storm, but weak limbs in the canopy may. Broken, dead and damaged limbs can be torn from trees during a storm and turned into dangerous projectiles.

Trees with dense canopies should be pruned regularly by a professional, especially during hurricane season. Proper pruning removes dead or drying branches which are most susceptible to wind.

Regular pruning during a tree’s development should create a sturdy, well-spaced framework of healthy branches with an open canopy that allows air to flow freely through it. It is important for a tree to have a central leader with no narrow forks or branches that leave the trunk at an acute angle. Limb crotches should be between 45 and 90 degrees.

Trees to Watch Out for — Trees with dense canopies — Dead or dying trees — Trees with co-dominant trunks — New plantings and young trees Consult a certified arborist to see if these, or any other tree hazards, exist around your home.

After the Storm has Passed Assess your property for damage and threats. An arborist should be contacted if: you need a chainsaw or ladder to prune away dead, dying or loose branches, power lines are down, you are unsure of the structural stability of a tree, or you do not know if a tree can be saved. in some cases, even a tree that has sustained some damage (defoliated, broken, or blown over) can be treated.

Trees have a much better chance of surviving if they receive proper, routine care. Remember, healthy trees can adjust more quickly to changes in the environment and are more resistant. therefore, if you are proactive and take the necessary steps before a storm hits, you can reduce your risk of property damage — saving yourself a great hassle and expense.

Watch this video to learn what to do after the storm has passed.

About SavATree: SavATree, the green choice for tree service and lawn care, provides environmentally sensible tree, shrub and lawn care services to residential, commercial, historic, government properties and more in select parts of CT, DC, MA, MD, NJ, NY, PA and VA. Services include: tree pruning, tree fertilizer, insect control, tree disease and more. Organic, traditional and hybrid options are available. for more information, visit www.savatree.com.

Video-Link Available: http://www2.marketwire.com/mw/frame_mw?attachid1710307

Company Contact: Dan Kane Online Marketing Manager SavATree dkane@savatree.com www.savatree.com

Copyright 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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As it enters the eye wall of Irene, the plane begins to shake and shudder violently, buffeted by the 100 mph winds from the season’s first hurricane.

In the cockpit, the flight crew, led by Cmdr. Carl Newman, intently focuses on keeping “Kermit” – the pet name for one of the two P-3 Orion turboprop planes flying out of MacDill Air Force Base – airborne amid the fury.

For Newman, flying a computer- and technology-laden plane into the heart of a huge hurricane has become routine after 12 years with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

“I’ve made 220 penetrations of eye walls,” says Newman, a smile creasing his face. “Every hurricane is different.”

While commercial pilots are trained to fly away from severe weather, hurricane hunters make a living flying into it.

“It is a lot of fun flying into weather,” Newman says. “I have always been interested in flying and hurricanes. This is the best combination of the two.”

While Newman is a veteran of many such flights, not everyone on board the plane today has so much experience. Lt. Cmdr. Scott Price is a former Navy pilot with more than 1,000 hours flying P-3s – none of it in the middle of a Category 2 hurricane.

That’s about to change.

* * * * *In the crew cabin, it’s just another day at the office.

Scientists, meteorologists and technicians monitor screens, watch radar images and check the constant flow of data emanating from sensors on board and dropped from the aircraft, seemingly unfazed by the bouncing and rolling of the plane and the omnipresent rattling of equipment.

“This will help us get a better idea of the structure of the storm,” says Sylvie Lorsolo, a NOAA radar scientist who is manning the Doppler radar, which is only found on the P-3. “This will help give us a better forecast.”

The information they are gathering will not only help get a better fix on the massive storm, says Lorsolo, but it will also be used in a decade-long study to improve the ability to predict hurricane intensity.

Bill Olney, an electrical technician, has made more than 170 eye wall penetrations. He likens flying the hurricane hunter to riding a roller coaster, though he thinks the former is more exciting.

“It’s kind of like Sheikra, only better,” says electrical technician bill Olney, referring to the well-known Busch Gardens roller coaster. “With Sheikra, you know what you are going to get. when you fly into a hurricane, you never know what this will do.”

As he speaks, Olney, who lives in Riverview, unwraps a dropsonde, a cardboard cylinder filled with sensors that read water temperature, wind speed, air pressure and humidity. at a preset location, he inserts the device into a white tube, pushes a button and, with a loud whoosh, the device falls out of the aircraft.

The device takes about three minutes to travel the 8,000 feet to the churning waters of the Atlantic, where it shorts out upon impact.

“These things cost $700 each,” says Olney. “We’ll drop about 20 of them. That may seem like a lot of money, but if we don’t get the track right, it could cost billions.”

* * * * *As Kermit makes its first pass through the eye wall, about halfway between Turks and Caicos and Hispaniola, Newman points to the water below.

“See how calm it is?” he says. That’s one way the crew knows they’re in the eye wall – it’s the calmest part of the storm.

The next two passes come in the darkness.

After the third pass, Ian Sears, a NOAA meteorologist and flight director, notes that the crew can tell the storm, which was a Category 1, is intensifying.

During the first pass, the eye wall, he says, was not well formed and the wind speed was about 80 knots. But by the third pass, things had changed.

“By the third pass, there was a nice-looking eye,” he says. “The winds were about 100 knots.”

As the plane heads back toward Tampa, Price grins as he takes a break back in the galley.

Newman, Olney and other experienced hurricane flyers say they have been on rides that “rattled kidneys,” but this eight-hour flight was not as turbulent as expected.

“I learned a lot on my first time,” Price said. “This was great OJT” – military parlance for on the job training.

« Rome looks amazing in Google Earth | Main | New Google Earth Imagery – August 24 »

Hurricane Irene in Google Earth

Hurricane Irene, which has already done some serious damage to Puerto Rico, was recently captured in stunning high resolution by NASA’s Terra satellite as it heads toward the east coast of the United States.

You can view the image on NASA’s Earth Observatory website, or view it in Google Earth using this KML file. Be aware the KML is loading the full 5 MB file from NASA’s server, as it’s amazingly sharp, so it’ll take a few moments to load.

To track the Hurricane and view it’s forecasted track, turn on your Places layer and an icon will appear over the Hurricane. Clicking that icon will give you access to details about the Hurricane, along with historical data and various projected paths. More details about this feature can be found in this post from a few months ago.

If you’re aware of other great tools to help track Irene and other 2011 hurricanes, leave a comment below and let us know.

Tweet Posted by mickmel at August 24, 2011 7:10 AM

NOTE: Please use English. Comments are moderated.

Hurricane Irene is approaching the Turks and Caicos Islands. at 10:00 a.m. CDT the center of Irene was located by an air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft near latitude 20.5 north, longitude 71.0 west.

Irene is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph, 19 km/h. this general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. on the forecast track, the core of Irene will move near or over the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight, be near the central Bahama early Wednesday, and near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday.

A hurricane warning is in effect for:

• Turks and Caicos Islands;
• The southeastern, central, and northwestern Bahamas.

A hurricane watch is in effect for:

• North coast of Haiti from le mole st. Nicholas eastward to the Dominican Republic border.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for:

• North coast of the Dominican Republic from cabo engano westward to the Haiti border;
• North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas eastward to the Dominican Republic border.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph, 160 km/h, with higher gusts. Irene is a category two hurricane on the saffir-simpson hurricane wind scale. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Irene could become a major hurricane by Wednesday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles, 85 km, from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles, 335 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb, 28.94 inches.

Tropical storm conditions will continue over northern portions of the Dominican Republic through this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are spreading over the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands with hurricane conditions expected by this afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are forecast to reach the central Bahamas late tonight with hurricane conditions expected by Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas by late Wednesday, with hurricane conditions expected by Thursday.

An extremely dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 13 feet above normal tide levels over the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, near and to the north of the center of Irene. A storm surge will also raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the north coast of Haiti and the entire coast of the Dominican Republic. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

Irene is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across Puerto Rico. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are expected over northern Hispaniola, with isolated maximum amounts of up to 15 inches possible over higher terrain. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are expected in the southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Next intermediate advisory, 1:00 p.m. CDT; next complete advisory, 4:00 p.m. CDT.

Hurricane Irene, threatening to become the first hurricane to hit the United States in three years, could be the catalyst the insurance industry has been seeking in its quest for across-the-board premium increases after years of weakness.

Like speculators in the futures market who applaud the effects of drought on wheat prices, another disaster could ultimately cheer investors in insurance and reinsurance stocks. Major storms in 2004 and 2005 triggered a surge in insurance stocks after the fact.

Since Hurricane Ike in 2008, though, the United States has enjoyed relatively mild weather by disaster standards, up to this year.

Weather-tracking maps on Monday suggest Irene could make landfall as soon as late Thursday. though the tools are less reliable in advance of 72 hours from landfall, some models forecast that the Carolinas are vulnerable to a major storm with winds in excess of 110 miles per hour.

Regardless, 2011 already promises to be the costliest year in history for natural disasters around the globe.

“It wouldn’t take much of a material event to cause significant firming,” said Gary Prestia, chief executive of the U.S. business at global reinsurer Flagstone Re. (FSR.N) “It wouldn’t take the typical $40 billion Katrina to push this into a firmer market than it is currently.”

FIRMING PRICES, FIRMER SHARES

If prices firm, then analysts say it is a fair bet that share prices will follow.

Most property and casualty insurers are now trading at historically depressed multiples of their book value. Property insurance stocks at their peak typically trade at two times book value, according to analysts at Barclays Capital. At a sector median of 0.83 times book today, according to Thomson Reuters data, that makes them cheap.

Historically, shares of reinsurance companies, which insure the insurers, lose value during typical late summer and early fall hurricane seasons but rally sharply after major storms, according to an August 22 research report from JMP Securities. Share prices across the sector rose, on average, about 32 percent in 2004 and 20 percent in 2005.

“We see similar upside going into the heart of the 2011 hurricane season as we believe a modest windstorm could have a significant impact on rates that would normally follow a $50+ billion event,” analyst Matthew Carletti wrote.

Shares of many of the largest insurers and reinsurers based in Bermuda are down sharply this year despite the active hurricane season. ACE Ltd (ACE.N), XL Group (XL.N), PartnerRe (PRE.N) and Everest Re (RE.N) are down between 10 and 24 percent since June 1.

LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION

Whether Irene wreaks the $15 billion damage mark that can turn the market depends to a great degree on where it hits. a weak Category 1 hurricane in Miami would probably not have enough power to trigger rate hikes.

On the other hand, any catastrophe modelling company will say that a Category 4 or greater hurricane in Miami –storms can ascend as high as Category 5 — would be devastating.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center’s five-day forecast showed the first hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic season swinging up Florida’s east coast on Thursday for possible landfall in South Carolina on Saturday.

“If the forecasts are verified by the actual event, this’ll just be another multibillion-dollar event on top of an incredibly busy year already,” said Jose Miranda, a senior executive at catastrophe modelling company Eqecat.

“Hurricane season is only one-third over and we’ve already had almost a full year’s activity on average already,” said Miranda, a meteorologist.

The Carolinas, which were ravaged in September 1989 by Hurricane Hugo, one of the 10 worst natural disasters in the United States, are particularly vulnerable. the coastal population of the two states more than doubled between 1960 and 2008, according to U.S. census data. South Carolina has successfully wooed private insurers but its northern neighbour has been less successful, insurance executives say.

The Insurance Information Institute earlier this summer reported that the potential loss exposure of the North Carolina Insurance Underwriting Association — the state-created insurer of last resort — increased 60 percent in the last six years.

The NCIUA, which says it can cover up to $4 billion in losses, is funded by insurers that operate in North Carolina and share losses equally in a disaster. any payouts beyond that could force the group to issue bonds, it has said.

Among the biggest members, by percentage share of liability, are State Farm, Nationwide and Allstate. (ALL)

NCIUA on Monday said the approach of Irene could lead its members to stop writing new policies or impose restrictions on existing ones in the next two days.

Insurers have complained for years that the North Carolina consortium is underfunded and could be undermined by a once-in-50-years type of windstorm. (Insurers consider a one-in-100 year storm a benchmark of serious disaster.)

Some worst-case scenarios are covered by catastrophe bonds, which insurers and reinsurers use to transfer risk to outside investors. the percentage of the “cat bond” market with exposure to U.S. hurricane risk has grown from 38% in 2003 to 71% today, according to broker Guy Carpenter.

Hurricane Irene has left impoverished Haiti relatively unscathed, with only isolated damage from flooding and no widespread serious emergencies in a country that is still struggling to recover from last year

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• NEW: As of 11 a.m. ET, Irene was moving over crooked and Acklins islands, the NHC says
• NEW: parts of northern Haiti are flooded, the U.N. says
• NEW: "We must all prepare for the worst," the North Carolina governor says
• NEW: some Outer Banks residents were planning "hurricane parties," a CNN iReporter say

Read more about Hurricane Irene from CNN affiliate WSAV.

Miami (CNN) — Hurricane Irene intensified into a Category 3 storm Wednesday, threatening much of the United States’ East Coast in the coming days.

The storm had maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, and is expected to strengthen further "in the next day or so," the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday morning.

"this is a huge storm," said CNN Meteorologist Jacqui Jeras. "the cloud field is more than 800 miles across. the tropical storm force winds extend out 200 miles from the center."

The storm could threaten large sections of the Eastern Seaboard, from the Carolinas northward through the northeast.

The strengthening, which officially made Irene a major hurricane, came as the storm continued to pound the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

At 11 a.m. ET, Irene was turning northwestward, with its eye moving over crooked and Acklins islands, the National Hurricane Center said.

"On the forecast track, the core of Irene will move across the southeastern and central Bahamas through tonight and over the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday," the Hurricane Center said.

Gallery: Hurricane Irene intensifies Irene reaches Category 3 near Bahamas Florida prepares for Irene Irene strikes Turks and Caicos

In Nassau, many people had evacuated by Wednesday morning. Shopkeepers were boarding up their storefronts, and residents prepared to hunker down for the storm’s arrival.

"We’ve been through quite a few hurricane so were pretty much prepared," said Brian Nottage, who owns a shop and ice cream parlor in downtown Nassau.

Irene’s path will see it rake a large portion of the island chain as it heads northwest toward the United States.

The storm unleashed heavy rains across northern Haiti, causing flooding, the United Nations said Wednesday. there were no reports of major losses or damage, U.N. officials said.

Most of the latest forecasts suggest the storm will avoid landfall in North Carolina. "however, this is a very dangerous storm and much of the East Coast, including North Carolina, should be prepared for a landfall," said Jeras.

Some computer models suggest new York or new Jersey could be hit.

"Everywhere from North Carolina to Massachusetts remains in the cone of uncertainty," said Jeras. "worst case scenario, we could be looking at two landfalls, or we could be lucky and get a brush instead of a direct hit… Even if Irene doesn’t make landfall in the United States, it may very well bring flooding rains, damaging winds and power outages to the Northeast. planning is critical and everyone needs to be ready with a disaster plan and a safety kit."

Hyde County, in North Carolina’s Outer Banks, declared a state of emergency for Ocracoke island and the county’s mainland beginning at 5 a.m. Wednesday — along with a mandatory evacuation for all visitors and a voluntary evacuation for residents. the mandatory evacuation will extend to residents beginning 5 a.m. Thursday, Hyde County Emergency Services said.

Ocracoke is reachable only by boat or private plane.

While forecasts showed the storm "moving further from the coast and toward the sea," North Carolina Gov. Beverly Perdue said Wednesday, "we must all prepare for the worst."

In Kill Devil Hills in the Outer Banks, locals who insist on staying trough the storm were planning "hurricane parties" as they stocked up on water, canned food, and flashlight batteries, said CNN iReporter Penelope Penn, who was in the area Tuesday. "the water was so calm and the sky so clear at the outer banks last night. It truly is calmest before a storm," she added. On Wednesday, Penn was in nearby Virginia Beach.

Inland, Lila Little of Chapel Hill, North Carolina, told CNN, "We are a bit nervous, since hurricanes are so unpredictable, but we have been here many times before." Little has lived in the area for more than 20 years.

"the economic effect will be the worst I think — Labor Day weekend will be a bust for the beaches here, and they count on that last bit of revenue before the season ends," she said.

The last major hurricane to strike the United States was Wilma in 2005, which was a Category 3 at landfall, said Jeras. Hurricane Katrina, earlier the same year, was also a Category 3 at landfall.

The most recent hurricane to make landfall in the United States was Ike in 2008, which hit near Galveston as a Category 2.

Hurricane Floyd in 1999 was the most recent major hurricane to hit North Carolina’s Outer Banks. It was a Category 2 at landfall.

Hurricane Gloria in 1985 was the most recent hurricane to hit new York. it was a Category 3 at landfall, the National Hurricane Center said. in 1991, Hurricane Bob hit Massachusetts, a Category 2 at landfall.

If a Category 3 hurricane makes landfall, "devastating damage will occur," according to the National Hurricane Center’s Saffir-Simpson scale. "there is a high risk of injury or death to people, livestock, and pets due to flying and falling debris." Older mobile homes will be destroyed, and newer ones could be as well. "Well-built frame homes can experience major damage involving the removal of roof decking and gable ends," the Hurricane Center explained.

"Numerous windows will be blown out of high-rise buildings resulting in falling glass, which will pose a threat for days to weeks after the storm. most commercial signage, fences, and canopies will be destroyed. many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to a few weeks after the storm passes."

Hurricane Ivan in 2004 "brought Category 3 winds and impacts to coastal portions of Gulf Shores, Alabama," the Hurricane Center said.

Bill Read, director of the Hurricane Center, said Irene could cause problems with flooding in northeastern states that have already experienced high levels of rainfall this summer.

He said the Atlantic Ocean up to Cape Hatteras in North Carolina is warm enough to sustain a major hurricane.

"all East Coast residents should pay close attention to this storm and take the time now to prepare," Craig Fugate, the Federal Emergency Management Agency administrator, said Tuesday.

"People think hurricanes are a Southern thing but people in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast need to take Irene seriously," Fugate said. "We have a lot of time for people to get ready but we don’t have forever."

The Hurricane Center’s five-day forecast map shows the storm approaching North Carolina on Saturday and hugging the coast throughout the weekend.

Widespread damage is possible from the coastal Carolinas all the way up to the Canadian Maritimes, including the major cities of the Northeast, CNN Meteorologist Dave Hennen said.

Irene is expected to pass well east of Florida so only minimal effects are expected Thursday and Friday as the storm moves northward toward the Carolinas.

"We will be ready if Hurricane Irene reaches North Carolina," Gov. Beverly Perdue said Tuesday. "Our teams are already lining up supplies, trucks and resources to reach anywhere the storm might touch."

In South Carolina, emergency officials in Beaufort County, which includes Hilton Head Island, worked to make certain that construction sites on major highways could be cleared quickly in case evacuations of coastal areas became necessary.

"We’re contacting (construction crews) every day now to make sure if we should have to do something, that they could remove their barrels and construction equipment, etc. to clear the road so we don’t have impediment in the roadways," county Emergency Management Director Todd Ferguson told CNN affiliate WSAV TV Tuesday. "We … will continue to do that until this threat is passed."

In Puerto Rico, officials reported the death of a 62-year-old woman Tuesday as drenching rains from Irene soaked the U.S. commonwealth. she was trying to cross a bridge in a car over a flooded creek when the vehicle was inundated and she drowned, according to Lourdes Vazquez, a spokeswoman for the city of Carolina.

The storm left widespread damage on the island, leaving about 600,000 electric customers without power at its peak.

President Barack Obama has signed an emergency declaration for Puerto Rico, providing for federal disaster assistance.

CNN’s Ed Payne, Josh Levs, and Nelson Quinones contributed to this report.

From clouds on Mars we move to really big and potentially dangerous clouds on Earth. These views of Hurricane Irene were captured by the crew of the International Space Station from an altitude of 225 miles at 3:33 p.m. EDT on Aug. 22, 2011, showing the tropical system intensifying as it passed to the north of Hispaniola. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a track that would take Irene near to or east of the Florida peninsula as a major hurricane on Friday with a possible landfall along the southeastern United States on Saturday.

According to WeatherBug, as of 5 p.m. EDT on Aug. 22, Hurricane Irene was centered near 19.5 N and 68.6 W, or 215 miles southeast of Grand Turk Island, and 65 miles north-northwest of Punta Cana, the Dominican Republic. This places it about 920 miles east-southeast of Miami. Maximum sustained winds remain at 80 mph, making it a Category One Hurricane.

The National Hurricane Center predicts Hurricane Irene is expected to strengthen in the next 48 hours. Click on the NHC link for a current map of where Irene is and updates on any advisories.

“It’s a reminder that we don’t always get to pick the next disaster,” Fugate said.

In North Carolina, the state-run ferry service off Ocracoke Island would be free during the evacuation, but no reservations were allowed. Boats can carry no more than 50 vehicles at a time.

The island is part of North Carolina’s Outer Banks, a roughly 200-mile stretch of fragile barrier islands off the state’s coast. Pristine beaches and wild mustangs attract thousands of tourists each year. Aside from Ocracoke, the other islands are accessible by bridges to the mainland and ferries. the limited access can make the evacuation particularly tense.

All the barrier islands have the geographic weakness of jutting out into the Atlantic like the side-view mirror of a car, a location that’s frequently been in the path of destructive storms over the decades.

Many remember 1999’s Hurricane Floyd, which made landfall as a Category 2 and caused a storm surge that wiped out scores of houses and other properties on the Outer Banks.

As of 11 a.m. EDT Wednesday, Irene was centered about 285 miles (460 kilometers) southeast of Nassau in the Bahamas and was moving northwest near 12 mph (19 kph).

It had already wrought destruction across the Caribbean, giving a glimpse of what the storm might bring to the Eastern Seaboard. in Puerto Rico, tens of thousands were without power, and one woman died after trying to cross a swollen river in her car. at least hundreds were displaced by flooding in the Dominican Republic, forced to take refuge in schools and churches.

Forecasters warned it could get worse: the storm could strengthen in the next day or so. Irene could crawl up the coast Sunday toward the Northeast region, where residents aren’t accustomed to such storms.

It’s been more than seven years since a major hurricane, considered a Category 3 with winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph), hit the East Coast. Hurricane Jeanne came ashore on Florida’s east coast in 2004.

On North Carolina’s mainland, residents who have weathered years of storms took notice. People flocked to gas stations and stores Tuesday to stock up on supplies like gasoline for generators, plywood for boarding up windows, flashlights, batteries and drinking water.

In the coastal city of Wilmington, Tommy Early watched Tuesday as customers came in to his Shell service station to prepare. Irene was the main topic of conversation there.

The last hurricane to hit the U.S. was Ike in 2008. the last Category 3 or higher to hit the Carolinas was Bonnie in 1998, but caused less damage than other memorable hurricanes: Hugo in 1989, Floyd in 1999 and Isabel in 2003.

Though a Category 2, Isabel cut a new inlet through Hatteras Island and killed 33 people.

At Craft American Hardware at Wrightsville Beach, Don Korman said he had placed a big order set to arrive Wednesday: Batteries, lanterns, tarps and shutter supplies.

“People are watching the TV, but they usually come by a few days before,” he said. “If it looks like it’s coming like this, you can run out of stock really quick.”

Korman, though, plans to be ready even for 11th-hour supply trips: the store is ready to plywood its windows and run off generator power until it becomes unsafe or unwise to keep the doors open.

“We won’t close until the last minute,” he said.

Most locals were heeding the warnings and getting ready for the storm, though few seemed panicked.

“Water, batteries, flashlights and now I’m going to get my grocery shopping done,” said Sally Godwin, carrying two large jugs of fresh water out of Korman’s store with her. “I live at the beach, and they always evacuate it the day before. I have to make sure all my little stuff’s taken care of.”

Associated Press writers Tom Breen in Wilmington, N.C., and Michael Biesecker in Raleigh, N.C., contributed to this report.

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