South San Joaquin County Irrigation District is again bucking the state development when it comes to water.Just two months after filing a water emergency, the SSJID board Tuesday was ready to roll back measures place in place to stretch water supplies.&ldquoWe&rsquore ready to make all of our deliveries,&rdquo SSJID General Manager Jeff Shields said. &ldquoWe&rsquore in good shape.&rdquoit is in marked contrast with virtually every other irrigation and water district in California. Recent storms have somewhat reduced the water issues elsewhere but the vital April 1 snow survey shows Sierra snowpack at 55 percent of normal. the snowpack is the largest &ldquoreservoir&rdquo of water in California.the SSJID was ready to dodge the round by taking steps early and not waiting plus stalling the start of the irrigation time until late March. the rainfall has helped add vital water back to farmland plus has helped partly full tanks. the center also is gaining from improved snowfall on the Stanislaus River watershed. those elements in combination with the truth the SSJID has four tanks including Woodward Reservoir is expected to enable it to meet all deliveries for 2012 to urban and park consumers based on last year&rsquos consumption.the SSJID is entitled to 300,000 acre feet of water annually from the Stanislaus watershed. they now anticipate being ready to acquire 270,000 acre feet.the center may be ready to make irrigation gives to everyone until the end of the water yr including those who took a uncommon January water run in order to keep orchards, vineyards, and different crops alive.the water level at Woodward Reservoir will not be reduced by five feet. That move was made to reduce surface water coverage that in turn decreases evaporation losses.Irrigation runs may also return to normal by may. the program that had been place in place called for shorter runs and a longer amount of time between water being delivered.the district is continuing its efforts to reduce water consumption through better techniques and conservation even though they had dodged a round for this year.Nearly $14 million is being allocated to a pressurized system for trickle irrigation in the delivery area south of Manteca and west of Ripon. it is developed to substantially reduce water use by reducing the need to flood areas or use sprinklers.

One of many worst things that can eventually any homeowner is a water flow. especially one that is seeping water all over your home and you can not end it. you don’t know where to turn the water off and no one ever showed you how. this is a real problem with homeowners, especially young children and women. Choosing the water supply shutoff valve can be like finding a needle in a haystack, especially if you are in full panic mode and water is leaking all over your house.

The key to solving this challenge, is preparing yourself for any kinds of water leaks. Water leaks include connected home and bathroom drains, along with damaged water supply lines. Once the water starts to leak and you don’t have the capability to turn it off, you have two alternatives. you can run out to the front of your home shouting like a crazy Indian shouting for help or you can call a plumber and pay the extremely high emergency rates that you will be going to be charged. Here’s the good media, if you are reading this report, you should make sure that you discover out where your water supply shutoff valve is found and do it as soon as possible.

If you are really, not interested in paying ridiculous emergency plumber expenses, discover out how to turn the water supply valve off, just in case you find yourself in an emergency water leak situation. I could not strain this enough, so make sure that you ask someone for help with as soon this issue as possible. I really do not know how much emergency plumber’s cost, but I would not doubt that it would be over $100, simply to turn the water off in an emergency situation.

When it comes to emergency water removal, form treatment, and flood damage repair, leave it to the pros. Your professional disaster repair specialist has got the market information, experience, and credentials to guide you and your family through the entire process. The proper therapy depends on the particular nature of the harm in your home and will be tailored to meet your specific needs.

But homeowners, often feeling weak in these situations, may ask what they can do to help during this time. The answer is basic but important: security. Taking measures to ensure the security of your family and your home is advice to heed. Let’s take a look at some safety do’s and don’ts.

Determine whether the house is structurally safe to enter or live in authorities may refer to the structural integrity of the home. if you’re uncertain, don’t enter the house and arrange for the money for shelter with the help of friends, neighbors, and local businesses. Contact your insurance company, too.

If it’s determined that the home is safe to enter, change off the power by limiting the main circuit breaker change off the major water supply as well. Basement could damage was filled by a your furnace if the water reaches a dangerously advanced. if you have a propane supply line, flip that off also better still, depart that for a professional.

Of course, keep children and pets far from flooded areas you don’t want incidents from smooth, wet floors.

Don’t function televisions, pcs, vacuums or other electrical appliances while standing on wet rugs or floors, specially real surfaces.

Be sure your belongings are safe. if you won’t be living in the home due to the harmful conditions, remove your possessions including papers and valued things such as photographs and other souvenirs store them with a respected friend or general. if you are able to remain in your home, move possessions to a dry, safe location.

Is there Mold?

Mold growth is usually one of many following issues created by flood damage. The moist conditions in your home after a flood are a perfect breeding ground for these tiny organisms that spread by creating airborne spores. those mix with the air within your home and can guide to health and safety concerns for you and your family. Common symptoms resulting from form coverage include everything from respiratory issues and nasal and sinus congestion, to skin, eye, nose and throat irritation.

(Be on the hunt for signs of form. they vary significantly but can sometimes include a smelly odor, a white and thread-like growth, groups of small black spots mold can be grayish-brown, grayish-green or white in color.)

Do treat all flood water as infected. The water and water-impacted materials may not be contaminated but until dependant on a skilled, don’t take possibilities. Don’t monitor contaminated materials and items into whole regions. Do keep children and pets, who are particularly susceptible, out of suspect areas. Absorbent materials such as flooring and drywall might be unsalvageable after contaminated.

Implementing these suggestions will put you in to action mode versus feeling weak. More importantly, it’ll ensure the security of your family and your home.

ByAA Felecia Drake AAArticle Source: http://EzineArticles.com/6903591

There are numerous emergency supply vendors who provide emergency system, but don’t find the first company if you need the best you come across. Obtaining the right disaster survival equipment may mean the big difference between life and death

Consider the planned use if the best emergency is needed by you. There are survival resource for cars earthquake preparedness, home emergency kits, emergency backpack,, and family survival kits, all of which have different resources. You must also look at the number of individuals the equipment may serve.

There are numerous emergency preparedness resources vendors who provide different emergency preparedness systems, but don’t find the first company or the first equipment you come across if you need the best.

When considering your choice look at the portability of the survival tool. For because you may be holding them on your back for long distances example, emergency backpack products should not be too heavy. Consider the standing of the tools. Go for products which are rated for at the very least 3 days/72 hours.

Consider what is contained in the equipment. A great equipment should contain bandages of tweezers, varying sizes, many products, medicines, and perhaps extra clothing. You can visit the Red Cross or FEMA internet site for recommendations on what things to then obtain a tailored equipment and include in your equipment. You can get tips on exactly what a great equipment should contain from recommendations by firefighters, police officers and other emergency care services, and from people who have been in problems before.

You may understand client recommendations and independent evaluations to allow you to choose between emergency preparedness systems. You might like to join appropriate on the web discussion forums. You ought to just obtain from emergency preparedness supply vendors who follow U.S. Government guidelines. The best spot to obtain these equipment is online because you get to examine a much more choices, lower prices are got by you, and shop quickly and anonymously.

There are numerous emergency preparedness resources vendors who provide different emergency preparedness systems, but don’t find the first company or the first equipment you come across if you need the best.

By John GaltAugust 20, 2011 -18:35 ET

Waiting on the “official” National Hurricane Center release but the storm has been reclassified by the Naval Research Laboratory so when the NHC does issue their updated statement, I’ll have it here. this storm is of particular concern to Puerto Rico due to the flooding potential and of course the people of Florida where the current model runs have it hitting our state some time at the end of next week.

UPDATED 8/24 08:03 ET -

Now a Cat 3 and I think it could easily reach a high end Cat 4 before tomorrow. See advisory 16A below.

UPDATED 8/24 07:30 ET -

Now the panic seems to be starting on TWC and other news outlets. first the Bushquake and now the threat of a repeat of the Long Island Express hurricane quite possibly this weekend. The media will be more fun to track rather than the actual storm. However if you live anywhere from Eastern North Carolina to Nova Scotia, now is the time to review your hurricane preps and check list.

UPDATED 8/23 05:15 ET -

Thankfully it would appear my neck of the woods will get passed by this storm based on the latest data. unfortunately the entire Eastern seaboard of the U.S. could be dealing with Irene before all is said and done. Hopefully it will recurve out to sea and miss the U.S. but that seems unlikely now. Models have been updated with the latest runs below.

UPDATED 8/22 17:30 ET -

While this “appears” to be a non-Florida bound storm, some models hint at a NC then Northeastern Seaboard solution which is far worse. Imagine a storm hitting the shorelines of NJ, NY, CT, RI, and MA on Labor Day weekend.

Let’s hope it does recurve  out to sea.

The model runs at 0000Z and tomorrow at 1200Z will really set the table for either panic or calm.

UPDATED 8/22 07:28 ET -

The model runs this morning are looking more favorable to my neck of the woods but if the move towards South Carolina bears out, there is the potential for a major hurricane impacting that region causing major problems. all interests in Florida up to the Carolinas need to start reviewing their hurricane plans. Updated model runs are included.

UPDATED 8/21 07:15 ET -

Well, Florida is now well under the “cone of death” so if things look bad here at the end of the week, needless to say my updates will be more focused on the storm rather than other affairs in the world. – John

Quick edit….

This is why I am concerned about this particular storm:

Definition of a “Hebert Box” from Wikipedia (I’ll post the Weather Channel video if it becomes available again soon):

An Hebert Box (pronounced AY-bear, also known as Hebert’s Box) is one of two regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean that are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida, USA. they are named for former National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center forecaster Paul Hebert, who observed in the late 1970s that most strong hurricanes (characterized as those with winds exceeding 110 miles per hour (177 km/h)) which had struck South Florida since 1900 had also passed through one of these two small 335-mile-by-335-mile (517-km-by-517-km) square geographic regions.[1]

That’s why my personal interest is at a major peak and updates will be daily on these pages.

Satellite photos will update automatically from the NHC:

NOAA VISIBLE IMAGE – T.S. IRENE

And the infrared updates automatically also:

NOAA INFRARED – T.S. IRENE

SWFMUD & NCAR  runs (click to enlarge to full size):

HURRICANE IRENE advisories – 8/24 0800 EDT ADVISORY#16A:000WTNT34 KNHC 241157TCPAT4

BULLETINHURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16ANWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011800 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

…IRENE BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE….EYE HEADED FOR THECROOKED AND ACKLINS ISLANDS…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION———————————————-LOCATION…21.9N 73.3WABOUT 55 MI…85 KM SE OF ACKLINS ISLAND BAHAMASABOUT 335 MI…540 KM SE OF NASSAUMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…115 MPH…185 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…957 MB…28.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS——————–CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FORTHE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…* THE SOUTHEASTERN…CENTRAL…AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITORPRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK——————————AT 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…THE EYE OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATEDNEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVINGTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURNTOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECASTTRACK…THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ANDCENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ONTHURSDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATETHAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115MPH…185 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREEHURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOMEADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES…65 KM…FROMTHE CENTER…AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205MILES…335 KM. AN UNOFFICIAL REPORTING STATION AT PINE CAY IN THECAICOS ISLANDS RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 65 MPH….105 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTERAIRCRAFT WAS 957 MB…28.26 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND———————-WIND…HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THESOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOBEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS MORNING…WITH HURRICANECONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT…WITHHURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE…IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OFIRENE…AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELSBY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THECENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS…AND BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEETABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THETURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BEACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL…IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALLACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE INASSOCIATION WITH IRENE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENINGFLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALLACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS…ANDTHE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

NEXT ADVISORY————-NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.

$$FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

=================================================Forecast Discussion#16 8/24 0500 EDT:000WTNT44 KNHC 240846TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011500 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

THE LAST PENETRATION OF THE EYE BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERSWAS JUST AFTER 0500 UTC…AND THEY FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSUREHAD DROPPED TO 966 MB. THEY ALSO MEASURED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDSOF 92 KT OUTBOUND IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. IT IS LIKELY THATHIGHER WINDS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THEHURRICANE. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS..THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OFIRENE HAS BECOME QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERYCOLD CLOUD TOPS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SABARE 100 KT. COMBINING THE ABOVE INFORMATION…THE CURRENTINTENSITY IS SET CONSERVATIVELY AT 95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ANOTHERHURRICANE HUNTER MISSION IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200 UTC TO MEASURE THEINTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE. ALTHOUGH THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCEINDICATES SOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA…THIS SHEARIS NOT EXPECTED TO PREVENT FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND IT SEEMSHIGHLY LIKELY THAT IRENE WILL INTENSIFY TO CATEGORY 3 STATUS LATERTODAY. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH COULD OCCUR IN 1 TO 2 DAYSDUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS. IN FACT…THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVETECHNIQUE SHOWS A CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICALPROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUSAND LIES BETWEEN THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS AND THE LGEM GUIDANCE.

SATELLITE ANIMATION AND CENTER FIXES SHOW THAT THE EYE OF IRENE HASBEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN A WEST AND NORTHWEST HEADING OVER THE PASTSEVERAL HOURS. SMOOTHING THROUGH THESE WOBBLES YIELDS A MOREREPRESENTATIVE MOTION OF ABOUT 295/8. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGETO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PAST FEW ADVISORIES. OVERTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLYTURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS IT MOVES THROUGH APRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AROUND 72 HOURS…ASHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BEGIN TOINDUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH SOMEACCELERATION AFTERWARDS. THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUSHAS…AGAIN…SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST FROM THE PREVIOUSPACKAGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT FROMTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS.

USERS ARE REMINDED THAT SIGNIFICANT ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE WITHFORECASTS AT LONGER LEAD TIMES…SO ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THEEXACT FORECAST POSITIONS AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 21.6N 72.9W 95 KT 110 MPH12H 24/1800Z 22.5N 74.1W 105 KT 120 MPH24H 25/0600Z 24.1N 75.4W 110 KT 125 MPH36H 25/1800Z 25.8N 76.6W 110 KT 125 MPH48H 26/0600Z 27.7N 77.0W 110 KT 125 MPH72H 27/0600Z 32.0N 76.8W 105 KT 120 MPH96H 28/0600Z 36.5N 75.0W 90 KT 105 MPH120H 29/0600Z 42.0N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH…INLAND

$$FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

Published: August 24, 2011 11:12 AM by The Associated Press  

BEDFORD HILLS, NY — – (Marketwire) — 08/24/11 — The high winds associated with hurricanes can cause significant property damage in the form of falling trees, tree limbs and flying landscape debris. The key to minimizing your risk against property damage is storm preparedness.

There is no such thing as a hurricane-resistant landscape but, with proper care and timely maintenance overseen by a certified arborist, trees can be more resistant to storm damage. The team of certified arborists at SavATree have compiled a few tips to aid in storm damage prevention.

Pruning is Vital to Prevention a strong, deep-rooted tree may not fall during a storm, but weak limbs in the canopy may. Broken, dead and damaged limbs can be torn from trees during a storm and turned into dangerous projectiles.

Trees with dense canopies should be pruned regularly by a professional, especially during hurricane season. Proper pruning removes dead or drying branches which are most susceptible to wind.

Regular pruning during a tree’s development should create a sturdy, well-spaced framework of healthy branches with an open canopy that allows air to flow freely through it. It is important for a tree to have a central leader with no narrow forks or branches that leave the trunk at an acute angle. Limb crotches should be between 45 and 90 degrees.

Trees to Watch Out for — Trees with dense canopies — Dead or dying trees — Trees with co-dominant trunks — New plantings and young trees Consult a certified arborist to see if these, or any other tree hazards, exist around your home.

After the Storm has Passed Assess your property for damage and threats. An arborist should be contacted if: you need a chainsaw or ladder to prune away dead, dying or loose branches, power lines are down, you are unsure of the structural stability of a tree, or you do not know if a tree can be saved. in some cases, even a tree that has sustained some damage (defoliated, broken, or blown over) can be treated.

Trees have a much better chance of surviving if they receive proper, routine care. Remember, healthy trees can adjust more quickly to changes in the environment and are more resistant. therefore, if you are proactive and take the necessary steps before a storm hits, you can reduce your risk of property damage — saving yourself a great hassle and expense.

Watch this video to learn what to do after the storm has passed.

About SavATree: SavATree, the green choice for tree service and lawn care, provides environmentally sensible tree, shrub and lawn care services to residential, commercial, historic, government properties and more in select parts of CT, DC, MA, MD, NJ, NY, PA and VA. Services include: tree pruning, tree fertilizer, insect control, tree disease and more. Organic, traditional and hybrid options are available. for more information, visit www.savatree.com.

Video-Link Available: http://www2.marketwire.com/mw/frame_mw?attachid1710307

Company Contact: Dan Kane Online Marketing Manager SavATree dkane@savatree.com www.savatree.com

Copyright 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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As it enters the eye wall of Irene, the plane begins to shake and shudder violently, buffeted by the 100 mph winds from the season’s first hurricane.

In the cockpit, the flight crew, led by Cmdr. Carl Newman, intently focuses on keeping “Kermit” – the pet name for one of the two P-3 Orion turboprop planes flying out of MacDill Air Force Base – airborne amid the fury.

For Newman, flying a computer- and technology-laden plane into the heart of a huge hurricane has become routine after 12 years with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

“I’ve made 220 penetrations of eye walls,” says Newman, a smile creasing his face. “Every hurricane is different.”

While commercial pilots are trained to fly away from severe weather, hurricane hunters make a living flying into it.

“It is a lot of fun flying into weather,” Newman says. “I have always been interested in flying and hurricanes. This is the best combination of the two.”

While Newman is a veteran of many such flights, not everyone on board the plane today has so much experience. Lt. Cmdr. Scott Price is a former Navy pilot with more than 1,000 hours flying P-3s – none of it in the middle of a Category 2 hurricane.

That’s about to change.

* * * * *In the crew cabin, it’s just another day at the office.

Scientists, meteorologists and technicians monitor screens, watch radar images and check the constant flow of data emanating from sensors on board and dropped from the aircraft, seemingly unfazed by the bouncing and rolling of the plane and the omnipresent rattling of equipment.

“This will help us get a better idea of the structure of the storm,” says Sylvie Lorsolo, a NOAA radar scientist who is manning the Doppler radar, which is only found on the P-3. “This will help give us a better forecast.”

The information they are gathering will not only help get a better fix on the massive storm, says Lorsolo, but it will also be used in a decade-long study to improve the ability to predict hurricane intensity.

Bill Olney, an electrical technician, has made more than 170 eye wall penetrations. He likens flying the hurricane hunter to riding a roller coaster, though he thinks the former is more exciting.

“It’s kind of like Sheikra, only better,” says electrical technician bill Olney, referring to the well-known Busch Gardens roller coaster. “With Sheikra, you know what you are going to get. when you fly into a hurricane, you never know what this will do.”

As he speaks, Olney, who lives in Riverview, unwraps a dropsonde, a cardboard cylinder filled with sensors that read water temperature, wind speed, air pressure and humidity. at a preset location, he inserts the device into a white tube, pushes a button and, with a loud whoosh, the device falls out of the aircraft.

The device takes about three minutes to travel the 8,000 feet to the churning waters of the Atlantic, where it shorts out upon impact.

“These things cost $700 each,” says Olney. “We’ll drop about 20 of them. That may seem like a lot of money, but if we don’t get the track right, it could cost billions.”

* * * * *As Kermit makes its first pass through the eye wall, about halfway between Turks and Caicos and Hispaniola, Newman points to the water below.

“See how calm it is?” he says. That’s one way the crew knows they’re in the eye wall – it’s the calmest part of the storm.

The next two passes come in the darkness.

After the third pass, Ian Sears, a NOAA meteorologist and flight director, notes that the crew can tell the storm, which was a Category 1, is intensifying.

During the first pass, the eye wall, he says, was not well formed and the wind speed was about 80 knots. But by the third pass, things had changed.

“By the third pass, there was a nice-looking eye,” he says. “The winds were about 100 knots.”

As the plane heads back toward Tampa, Price grins as he takes a break back in the galley.

Newman, Olney and other experienced hurricane flyers say they have been on rides that “rattled kidneys,” but this eight-hour flight was not as turbulent as expected.

“I learned a lot on my first time,” Price said. “This was great OJT” – military parlance for on the job training.

« Rome looks amazing in Google Earth | Main | New Google Earth Imagery – August 24 »

Hurricane Irene in Google Earth

Hurricane Irene, which has already done some serious damage to Puerto Rico, was recently captured in stunning high resolution by NASA’s Terra satellite as it heads toward the east coast of the United States.

You can view the image on NASA’s Earth Observatory website, or view it in Google Earth using this KML file. Be aware the KML is loading the full 5 MB file from NASA’s server, as it’s amazingly sharp, so it’ll take a few moments to load.

To track the Hurricane and view it’s forecasted track, turn on your Places layer and an icon will appear over the Hurricane. Clicking that icon will give you access to details about the Hurricane, along with historical data and various projected paths. More details about this feature can be found in this post from a few months ago.

If you’re aware of other great tools to help track Irene and other 2011 hurricanes, leave a comment below and let us know.

Tweet Posted by mickmel at August 24, 2011 7:10 AM

NOTE: Please use English. Comments are moderated.

Hurricane Irene is approaching the Turks and Caicos Islands. at 10:00 a.m. CDT the center of Irene was located by an air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft near latitude 20.5 north, longitude 71.0 west.

Irene is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph, 19 km/h. this general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. on the forecast track, the core of Irene will move near or over the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight, be near the central Bahama early Wednesday, and near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday.

A hurricane warning is in effect for:

• Turks and Caicos Islands;
• The southeastern, central, and northwestern Bahamas.

A hurricane watch is in effect for:

• North coast of Haiti from le mole st. Nicholas eastward to the Dominican Republic border.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for:

• North coast of the Dominican Republic from cabo engano westward to the Haiti border;
• North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas eastward to the Dominican Republic border.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph, 160 km/h, with higher gusts. Irene is a category two hurricane on the saffir-simpson hurricane wind scale. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Irene could become a major hurricane by Wednesday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles, 85 km, from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles, 335 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb, 28.94 inches.

Tropical storm conditions will continue over northern portions of the Dominican Republic through this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are spreading over the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands with hurricane conditions expected by this afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are forecast to reach the central Bahamas late tonight with hurricane conditions expected by Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas by late Wednesday, with hurricane conditions expected by Thursday.

An extremely dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 13 feet above normal tide levels over the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, near and to the north of the center of Irene. A storm surge will also raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the north coast of Haiti and the entire coast of the Dominican Republic. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

Irene is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across Puerto Rico. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are expected over northern Hispaniola, with isolated maximum amounts of up to 15 inches possible over higher terrain. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are expected in the southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Next intermediate advisory, 1:00 p.m. CDT; next complete advisory, 4:00 p.m. CDT.

Hurricane Irene, threatening to become the first hurricane to hit the United States in three years, could be the catalyst the insurance industry has been seeking in its quest for across-the-board premium increases after years of weakness.

Like speculators in the futures market who applaud the effects of drought on wheat prices, another disaster could ultimately cheer investors in insurance and reinsurance stocks. Major storms in 2004 and 2005 triggered a surge in insurance stocks after the fact.

Since Hurricane Ike in 2008, though, the United States has enjoyed relatively mild weather by disaster standards, up to this year.

Weather-tracking maps on Monday suggest Irene could make landfall as soon as late Thursday. though the tools are less reliable in advance of 72 hours from landfall, some models forecast that the Carolinas are vulnerable to a major storm with winds in excess of 110 miles per hour.

Regardless, 2011 already promises to be the costliest year in history for natural disasters around the globe.

“It wouldn’t take much of a material event to cause significant firming,” said Gary Prestia, chief executive of the U.S. business at global reinsurer Flagstone Re. (FSR.N) “It wouldn’t take the typical $40 billion Katrina to push this into a firmer market than it is currently.”

FIRMING PRICES, FIRMER SHARES

If prices firm, then analysts say it is a fair bet that share prices will follow.

Most property and casualty insurers are now trading at historically depressed multiples of their book value. Property insurance stocks at their peak typically trade at two times book value, according to analysts at Barclays Capital. At a sector median of 0.83 times book today, according to Thomson Reuters data, that makes them cheap.

Historically, shares of reinsurance companies, which insure the insurers, lose value during typical late summer and early fall hurricane seasons but rally sharply after major storms, according to an August 22 research report from JMP Securities. Share prices across the sector rose, on average, about 32 percent in 2004 and 20 percent in 2005.

“We see similar upside going into the heart of the 2011 hurricane season as we believe a modest windstorm could have a significant impact on rates that would normally follow a $50+ billion event,” analyst Matthew Carletti wrote.

Shares of many of the largest insurers and reinsurers based in Bermuda are down sharply this year despite the active hurricane season. ACE Ltd (ACE.N), XL Group (XL.N), PartnerRe (PRE.N) and Everest Re (RE.N) are down between 10 and 24 percent since June 1.

LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION

Whether Irene wreaks the $15 billion damage mark that can turn the market depends to a great degree on where it hits. a weak Category 1 hurricane in Miami would probably not have enough power to trigger rate hikes.

On the other hand, any catastrophe modelling company will say that a Category 4 or greater hurricane in Miami –storms can ascend as high as Category 5 — would be devastating.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center’s five-day forecast showed the first hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic season swinging up Florida’s east coast on Thursday for possible landfall in South Carolina on Saturday.

“If the forecasts are verified by the actual event, this’ll just be another multibillion-dollar event on top of an incredibly busy year already,” said Jose Miranda, a senior executive at catastrophe modelling company Eqecat.

“Hurricane season is only one-third over and we’ve already had almost a full year’s activity on average already,” said Miranda, a meteorologist.

The Carolinas, which were ravaged in September 1989 by Hurricane Hugo, one of the 10 worst natural disasters in the United States, are particularly vulnerable. the coastal population of the two states more than doubled between 1960 and 2008, according to U.S. census data. South Carolina has successfully wooed private insurers but its northern neighbour has been less successful, insurance executives say.

The Insurance Information Institute earlier this summer reported that the potential loss exposure of the North Carolina Insurance Underwriting Association — the state-created insurer of last resort — increased 60 percent in the last six years.

The NCIUA, which says it can cover up to $4 billion in losses, is funded by insurers that operate in North Carolina and share losses equally in a disaster. any payouts beyond that could force the group to issue bonds, it has said.

Among the biggest members, by percentage share of liability, are State Farm, Nationwide and Allstate. (ALL)

NCIUA on Monday said the approach of Irene could lead its members to stop writing new policies or impose restrictions on existing ones in the next two days.

Insurers have complained for years that the North Carolina consortium is underfunded and could be undermined by a once-in-50-years type of windstorm. (Insurers consider a one-in-100 year storm a benchmark of serious disaster.)

Some worst-case scenarios are covered by catastrophe bonds, which insurers and reinsurers use to transfer risk to outside investors. the percentage of the “cat bond” market with exposure to U.S. hurricane risk has grown from 38% in 2003 to 71% today, according to broker Guy Carpenter.